MCLA D2 3-28

MCLA Bracketology Division 2: Week 1

13 - Published March 28, 2013 by in College, Division II

As we introduce our first MCLA Division 2 Bracketology, I have to immediately warn you that this might throw your perceptions of D2 for a loop.  In case you didn’t read our intro, you can check it out here and read about the methodology.  The methodology we use to create our bracket has a huge impact in how we view Division 2 and create our seedings and matchups for the first round.  The overall themes you will see when looking at where we placed teams will be scheduling tough and winning games.

The Bracket – Week of March 25th

MCLA D2 3-28

Who Made It, Who Didn’t

The D2 bubble is quite different from D1.  In D2, there is a noticeable “cliff” from one group of teams to the next, and what is very nice about this version of bracketology, that “cliff” presents itself right after the 8th and final At-Large team is selected.  Take a look at the chart below, which shows our proprietary ranking system and how it ranks those on the bubble and those beyond:

11 Grove City 20.333
12 Western Oregon (AQ) 19.667
13 GVSU 19.167
14 Sam Houston State 19.000
15 USCG (AQ) 16.667
16 Indiana Tech 15.500
17 Gonzaga 13.667
18 CSU Fullerton 11.000
19 Portland 10.333
20 Briarcliffe 7.167
21 SCAD 6.500

You’ll see that Western Oregon and US Coast Guard are given Automatic Qualifiers for now, as I have defaulted them as league champs as the highest rated teams in their league before the rest of their league games and playoffs, that could all change.  What is critical for the D2 breakdown, is that Sam Houston is the final At-Large selection, but WOU is an AQ that could be challenged by Portland which is at 19 for now in our ranking system (again read our methodology here).  With WOU’s strong position based on strong OOC scheduling and strong position in all computer and human polls, they will get an At-Large should they be upset in the PNCLL playoffs.  Good news for the Wolves, bad news for Sam Houston which for the first time this year will not benefit from an AQ from the LSA after they lost UT-Dallas before the season began.  In this version, Sam Houston makes it with a strong win over Elon and strong OOC trip in general that has kept the Bearkats high in all polls, but you can see the potential for changes on a dime.

For 2013, there are eight AQ conferences in D2, and 8 at-large berths.  Here are your AQ’s in order:

  • St. Thomas (UMLC)
  • Westminster (RMLC)
  • Liberty (SELC)
  • Concordia (SLC)
  • Dayton (CCLA)
  • Western Oregon (PNCLL)
  • US Coast Guard (PCLL)
  • GRLC Champ – presumably WU-St. Louis based on past history, but Lindenwood-Belleville is making a strong case and will be able to play to prove they belong; either way no at-larges from the GRLC by a long shot in 2013
  • No at-larges from the WCLL either which has no AQ with two of their seven teams being D1A Football schools, and the conference does not meet the minimum teams for an AQ

The At-larges in order:

  • St. John’s
  • North Dakota State (UMLC has three of our rankings Top 5 teams)
  • Palm Beach Atlantic
  • Elon
  • Florida Gulf Coast
  • Grove City
  • Grand Valley State
  • Sam Houston State


Just like in D1, it wasn’t too hard to prevent first round repeat matchups.  In D2 I did have to shuffle two teams to prevent matchups, as our system originally spit out FGCU and Elon to match up again.  As I explained in my D1 bracketology, I believe you should be able to move the bottom eight seeds up or down a spot to prevent matchups quite easily.  The top eight seeds have earned that position and should only be moved if absolutely necessary.

US Coast Guard at 14? Really?  You better believe it.  Not only did the Bears not schedule many OOC games, Kennesaw and SCAD ended up being busts.  The computers hate the Coast Guard Academy and they get no bonuses for quality wins so far.  Further, Briarcliffe is not looked upon kindly by computers either, with almost identical problems as the Coast Guard.  If the Selection Committee uses ANY type of quantitative analysis, it is clear that the PCLL should be a one-bid league in 2013.

The SELC sends four teams quite easily, with none of their four currently in danger of being knocked off the bubble.  In fact, if SCAD had managed to win one more game, ANY one of the games they lost against strong opponents, it’s likely that computers and humans alike would have them much higher.  Similar to the PNCLL situation, if SCAD makes a run and wins the SELC tourney, Sam Houston would be out and the SELC could send five teams to Greenville.  Southern hospitality indeed!

Somewhat surprisingly to yours truly, the CCLA isn’t a stretch to send three teams dancing.  I thought either Dayton or GVSU wouldn’t be looked upon kindly and be left out of the tourney for the first time in a while.  But despite Dayton’s disappointing scheduling in terms of quantity, it doesn’t lack in quality and the computers don’t hate the Flyers, yet.  GVSU scheduled better, and while they seemed to shock the entire D2 community with their first couple of games in Florida, it turns out they lost to good teams.

First Shot

Finally, it’s important to note that in the methodology, Division 2 teams playing Division 1 teams does not give any boost outside of the computer ratings that factor that in.  Human polls are supposed to keep those games excluded (though likely it is difficult to ignore).  Something to chew on for future bracketologies, as I know the Laker fans will be pointing to their strong showing against a D1 Davenport squad as evidence their resurgence is merely a matter of time.

Let me know what you think, what you hate, and who I should’ve included in this first bracket for MCLA Division 2.

Read the Bracketology for Division 1 Week 1 here.

Update: It was brought to our attention by our friend Dave Franklin over at Inside Lacrosse, that the US Coast Guard is not able to fulfill a bid to the National Tournament.  This is because of annual service academy scheduling that has commitments for all students at the academy that they cannot miss.  If the USCG wins the PCLL tournament, an AQ bid would go to the runner-up so that the league can fulfill its AQ.  For this edition, we will keep USCG in the 14 seed slot, but for all intensive purposes that seed would go to the non-USCG PCLL champion.  We will address this in future editions, for now the USCG gets rewarded as a placeholder for their season work to date.  Thanks again to Dave for the keen eye!


13 Responses to MCLA Bracketology Division 2: Week 1

  1. Krieg Shaw March 28, 2013 at 1:19 pm #

    I think there will be some really great “upsets” in the MCLA D2 bracket. I also foresee an Oregon type situation (NCAAB Bracket) happening with teams like the Coast Guard.

  2. Hunter Hamernick March 28, 2013 at 5:19 pm #

    Bellville I don’t believe has a strong enough schedule to say they are making a good case to be the GRLC champs. They have only played St.Johns. Until they play Wash U, Mobap, and Mo State should we be able to determine their worth.

    • Patton March 28, 2013 at 5:32 pm #

      Agreed.  I think I would give the edge right now to Wash-St. Louis based on last season, but I know the teams have changed somewhat since then.  I think that the four teams (WU, L-Bville, MoBap, and MoSt) are all very tightly grouped in overall strength and talent and I would not be surprised with any one of those winning the GRLC.

    • bagellax21 March 28, 2013 at 11:47 pm #

      Out of Wash U, Mobap, and Mo State… Belleville played the closest game with St. Johns so I think it’s fair to say they have a legitamite shot to take the GRLC or at least give the perennial powers a run for their money. Also to say they’re proving themselves by playing any of those GRLC teams doesn’t count for much either since the GRLC is a horrible conference this year.

      • Hunter Hamernick April 4, 2013 at 9:27 pm #

        sure they played close to St.Johns but they were given a advantage based on the schedule St.Johns set for themselves and the unexpected snow that dropped in the area. Yet belleville had a close game with Michigan-Dearborn which is a team that they should have dominated. I feel Belleville’s schedule is too weak to determine how good they are at this point.

  3. laxfan14 March 28, 2013 at 6:15 pm #

    The USCG vs Briarcliffe game coming up on the 14th will be an amazing game and show if Briarcliffe still owns the division. I am going to make sure I make my way over and catch that game!

    I have USCG winning by two and then Briarcliffe coming up with a big revenge win in the PCLL championship winning by a good amount (4)

  4. Reese Braband March 29, 2013 at 9:14 am #

    This is great stuff! Thanks for all the hard work @laxallstars-66f041e16a60928b05a7e228a89c3799:disqus!

  5. 6x6 March 29, 2013 at 11:22 am #

    Good work, obviously much thought went into it. Rather than post a long comment here I used the forums instead.

  6. bsigmund90 March 31, 2013 at 10:18 am #

    will USCGA be able to attend nationals? If I remember correctly – their academy commitments prohibit them from going… i think the past few years they were looking at At-Large consideration and recused themselves to the committee.

    • Cadet Samuel Krakower April 6, 2013 at 12:42 pm #

      Coast Guard got a by-pass of orders this year, so if they qualify, they will be attending Nationals!

  7. khahahawesome April 2, 2013 at 1:44 pm #

    could someone explain more in-depth why WCLL can’t get an AQ? Like the number of teams needed in the conference and this football d1 deal…

    • khahahawesome April 2, 2013 at 9:14 pm #

       jk,,figured it out. ha

  8. khahahawesome April 2, 2013 at 1:53 pm #

    the WCLL needs to get their act together…

Leave a Reply